Monday, November 19, 2018

Published November 19, 2018 by with 0 comment

Comparing 2014 And 2018 Exit Polls

I wrote a simple tool that compares CNN's 2014 and 2018 midterm exit poll data.

Where did democrats gain votes in the 2018 midterms?

So first...I really wanted to know where democrats actually gained votes. This is a slightly different question from 'which demographics shifted towards democrats?' For example...if democrats gained 5% more males and males are 50% of the population, that's a bigger gain for than gaining 10% more Asian voters if Asians are only 5% of the population.

To understand the plot below, think of it like the following. If you have 100 voters, 50% of them are female, and 60% of females voted for democrats, then 30 (50%*60%) voters were female and voted for democrats. The plot below calculated this for 2014 and 2018, and is sorted by largest gain from left to right:

The way to read that then is that democrats gained the most new votes from females, college graduates, and voters with no religion. This isn't a perfect metric, but I like that it combines both the size of a demographic and how they shifted between 2014 and 2018.

With that out of the way, here is a tool for doing detailed comparisons between the exit polls in 2014 and 2018...

Exit poll analysis tool

Data were taken from here and here. The most interesting thing in this to me is that no demographics shifted towards the GOP.



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