Wednesday, December 12, 2018

Published December 12, 2018 by with 6 comments

How Has The Stock Market Performed Under Each President?

I was curious what the actual yield was under each president, so here it is...


The image above is yield using the period between a president's inauguration and when they left office. It is inflation-adjusted so that it gives the real yield. To get the effective annual yield:
  • (1 + yield)^t = gain where t = time, gain is final value divided by initial value, and yield = gain per t
  • solving that for yield, you get yield = 10^(log(gain) / t) - 1
  • the values in the plot are then 10^(log(final value / initial value) / (years in office)) - 1
It's unclear who should get credit for the performance during the first year of a president's term. I was curious how that changed the numbers, so the table below has the annual yields using actual term, and using 'one year after start of term to one year after end of term'.

PresidentActual termShift by 1 year
Calvin Coolidge+25%+20%
Herbert Hoover-31%-18%
Franklin Roosevelt+5.9%+3.4%
Harry Truman+1.9%-0.7%
Dwight Eisenhower+9.3%+10%
John Kennedy+3.4%+6.6%
Lyndon Johnson+1.5%-6.7%
Richard Nixon-11%-5.1%
Gerald Ford+14%-6.9%
Jimmy Carter-9.1%-6.1%
Ronald Reagan+7.3%+11%
George HW Bush+5.9%+7.5%
Bill Clinton+13%+10%
George W Bush-5.6%-2.5%
Barack Obama+12%+11%
Donald Trump+7.3%-3.8%

Finally, if you only care about recent history, the stock market since 1980 has performed best under the following presidents ranked high to low using their entire terms:

Bill Clinton
Barack Obama
Ronald Reagan
Donald Trump
George HW Bush
George W Bush


      edit

6 comments:

  1. "If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered."

    ReplyDelete
  2. How to start investing in the stock market is a question faced by many beginner investors. money blog

    ReplyDelete
  3. Investors around the globe are always eager to convert their hard-earned money into an amount that can secure their life in the years to come in the shortest possible time. Very few investment options can give the result that an investor seeks. Stock Market is one of the options where it is possible. The king of all the investment options where it is possible to earn a fortune overnight is Stock Market. Most Investor believes that innovative stock subscriptions provides them with the scope of the maximum return in the shortest time.

    ReplyDelete
  4. I was reading some of your content on this website and I conceive this internet site is really informative ! Keep on putting up. http://kingtradingsystems.com/option-alpha-review.php

    ReplyDelete
  5. Excellent and very exciting site. Love to watch. Keep Rocking. Saham Rekomendasi

    ReplyDelete
  6. ⭐️ Please come this way. One website, complete, complete, low budget, heavy break

    🎰 Slots ♥️ Casino ♠️ Baccarat ⚽️ Sports💥 Sic Bo Lottery 🔢

    💸 Start from 1 baht, easy to play, pay for real
    ✅ Direct web, stable, safe, pay millions, don't be afraid

    🔊 IPRO356 is kind to give money for free can be further enhanced
    📌 with promotion, refer a friend, make money for free
    💸 Up to 100,000 baht per month

    ReplyDelete