Wednesday, December 12, 2018

Published December 12, 2018 by with 7 comments

How Has The Stock Market Performed Under Each President?

I was curious what the actual yield was under each president, so here it is...

The image above is yield using the period between a president's inauguration and when they left office. It is inflation-adjusted so that it gives the real yield. To get the effective annual yield:
  • (1 + yield)^t = gain where t = time, gain is final value divided by initial value, and yield = gain per t
  • solving that for yield, you get yield = 10^(log(gain) / t) - 1
  • the values in the plot are then 10^(log(final value / initial value) / (years in office)) - 1
It's unclear who should get credit for the performance during the first year of a president's term. I was curious how that changed the numbers, so the table below has the annual yields using actual term, and using 'one year after start of term to one year after end of term'.

PresidentActual termShift by 1 year
Calvin Coolidge+25%+20%
Herbert Hoover-31%-18%
Franklin Roosevelt+5.9%+3.4%
Harry Truman+1.9%-0.7%
Dwight Eisenhower+9.3%+10%
John Kennedy+3.4%+6.6%
Lyndon Johnson+1.5%-6.7%
Richard Nixon-11%-5.1%
Gerald Ford+14%-6.9%
Jimmy Carter-9.1%-6.1%
Ronald Reagan+7.3%+11%
George HW Bush+5.9%+7.5%
Bill Clinton+13%+10%
George W Bush-5.6%-2.5%
Barack Obama+12%+11%
Donald Trump+7.3%-3.8%

Finally, if you only care about recent history, the stock market since 1980 has performed best under the following presidents ranked high to low using their entire terms:

Bill Clinton
Barack Obama
Ronald Reagan
Donald Trump
George HW Bush
George W Bush



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